AMD to introduce 65nm Kuma in late Q2

Friday 28th December 2007, 03:00:00 PM, written by Arun

According to Digitimes, AMD is slated to introduce a new dual-core CPU family based on the Barcelona architecture in late Q2. These products will presumably be based on the previously rumoured Kuma core with 1MiB of L2 and 2MiB of L3.

Data

• Two models: Athlon 6000 and 6250. Kuma was rumoured to clock up to 2.9GHz back in late 2006, but in October VR-Zone indicated that the 6250 would apparently clock at 2.6GHz or less.
• Four 90nm Athlon 64 X2s will reach EOL in Q1 2008: 6400+, 6000+ 125W, 6000+ 89W, 5600+. It is unclear what will happen to other 90nm products, but presumably they will also be discontinued shortly.

Analysis

• Given the timeframe, it is unclear whether any of the L3 and memory controller improvements in the 45nm Shangai will be introduced in the 65nm Kuma.
• It is also unclear how much higher Shangai's IPC will be compared to Barcelona's, although all indications seem to point at the ~10% range.
• Given the extra 2MiB of L3 cache and the fact the core size went up from 20.8mm² in Brisbane to 25.5mm² in Barcelona, Kuma should be at least 150mm² compared to Brisbane's 118mm².
• This makes it more expensive to manufacture than both Conroe and Penryn with 143mm² on 65nm and 107mm² on 45nm, respectively. Despite this, both clock speeds and IPC should remain lower.
• Assuming per-core IPC to be similar to Barcelona's, a 2.6GHz Kuma would still be noticeably slower than the rumoured 2.67GHz E8200 at $163 from Intel.
• However, looking at this another way, the most expensive 65nm Brisbane right now retails at $115. And the 90nm Athlon 64 X2s are 219mm² on 200mm wafers, so Kuma will remain significantly cheaper to manufacture.

Overall, Kuma is unlikely to improve AMD's financial position, and it doesn't feel like a particularly attractive offering for OEMs in the 2008 Back-to-School cycle compared to Intel's 45nm line-up. It should however be able to maintain the status quo and help complete the phase-out of AMD's 90nm products.

We remain unconvinced that Kuma and Agena are enough for AMD's microprocessor business to return to profitability by Q308, unless Intel decides to remain highly unaggressive with Penryn's pricing. Either way, the most important part now is AMD's execution on the 45nm node, and we look forward to seeing how Shangai turns out. We certainly hope that it will deliver, as much of the company's future now rests on that design.

amd ± barcelona, kuma, shangai

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